Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
80% 28.5pp
24h volume
$329.7K
Orrery Pulse30% current30-33% 7D range-2.0pp net move
40%36%32%27%23%
30%
May 2430%-2.0pp from start
May 23May 23May 23May 23May 24May 24May 24May 24
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)UMA PENDING
High
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsUMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersUMA PENDING
High
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5UMA PENDING
High
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsUMA PENDING
High
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5UMA PENDING
High
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5UMA PENDING
High
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
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Athletics vs. San Diego PadresPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Trump out as President by May 31?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?PINNED NO
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 91/85 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 82/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/78 76/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 24, 2026
Read full brief - Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? probability up 51.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs resolves in 9h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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