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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
75% 41.0pp
24h volume
$891.5K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-50% 7D range-49.5pp net move
68%51%34%17%0%
0%
May 230%-49.5pp from start
May 18May 18May 19May 20May 21May 22May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsUMA PENDING
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxUMA PENDING
High
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsUMA PENDING
High
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
Medium
Athletics vs. San Diego PadresPAST EVENT
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Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23?PAST EVENT
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Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23?PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. CavaliersPAST EVENT
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Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Canadiens vs. HurricanesPAST EVENT
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 95/90 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 89 | 95/84 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 89 | 95/92 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 24, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? probability up 54.0pp on $6.0M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? resolves in 24h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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