{"schema_version":"orrery.free.v1","endpoint":"/api/free/v1/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026/verification-brief","fetched_at":"2026-06-27T13:19:53.029Z","not_trade_advice":true,"meta":{"source_status":"healthy","degraded_sources":[],"partial":false,"warnings":[]},"data":{"verification_brief":{"schema_version":"orrery.verification_brief.v1","market_slug":"will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026","market_question":"Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?","market_url":"https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026","status":{"canonical":"RAIL_PINNED_NO","label":"Pinned near NO","reason":"YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.","confidence":"high","warning":"Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry."},"trust_transition":{"state":"price_pinned_not_settled","explanation":"The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final."},"verification_goal":"Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.","criteria":[{"id":"resolution_source","label":"Primary source","status":"required","prompt":"Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.","maps_to_resolution":"Determines which external record or oracle evidence can settle the market.","acceptable_sources":["Official source named in the market rules","Primary-source URL from the market description","UMA/oracle proposal or final resolution link when available"],"reject_if":["The link is commentary without primary evidence","The source does not address the exact market wording","The source is a screenshot without a durable URL"],"current_evidence":{"label":"Binance spot pair","url":"https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT","type":"exchange_price","confidence":"high"}},{"id":"contract_wording","label":"Contract wording","status":"required","prompt":"Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.","maps_to_resolution":"Prevents treating a related headline as settlement when the contract wording is narrower.","acceptable_sources":["Polymarket market rules","Market description text","Official resolution wording or oracle statement"],"reject_if":["The source only discusses a similar event","The source ignores deadline, timezone, extra time, or fallback wording"],"current_evidence":null},{"id":"price_not_settlement","label":"Price is not settlement","status":"required","prompt":"Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.","maps_to_resolution":"Prevents a rail-pinned price from being mistaken for official settlement.","acceptable_sources":["Official resolved status","UMA final resolution","Market page showing a resolved outcome"],"reject_if":["The evidence only shows a 0¢/100¢ price","The evidence does not prove official resolution"],"current_evidence":{"label":"0¢ current price","url":"https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026","type":"unknown","confidence":"medium"}}],"controlled_source_drops":[{"id":"drop_resolution_source","criterion_id":"resolution_source","prompt":"Drop one durable source that answers: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.","accepted_formats":["URL","short note mapping the URL to this criterion","timestamp or quote fragment when the source is long"],"required_fields":["source_url","criterion_id","contributor_handle","submitted_at","review_state"],"review_state":"controlled_pilot"},{"id":"drop_contract_wording","criterion_id":"contract_wording","prompt":"Drop one durable source that answers: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.","accepted_formats":["URL","short note mapping the URL to this criterion","timestamp or quote fragment when the source is long"],"required_fields":["source_url","criterion_id","contributor_handle","submitted_at","review_state"],"review_state":"controlled_pilot"},{"id":"drop_price_not_settlement","criterion_id":"price_not_settlement","prompt":"Drop one durable source that answers: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.","accepted_formats":["URL","short note mapping the URL to this criterion","timestamp or quote fragment when the source is long"],"required_fields":["source_url","criterion_id","contributor_handle","submitted_at","review_state"],"review_state":"controlled_pilot"}],"telegram_prompt":"Orrery verification task\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\nState: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled\n\nNeed sources for:\n1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.\n2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.\n3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.\n\nDrop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.","x_prompt":{"root_post":"Orrery verification brief\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\n\nState: price pinned not settled\nVerify: Primary source + Contract wording\n\nPrice is not settlement.\nResearch only. Not trade advice.","link_reply":"Open the Orrery market brief:\nhttps://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026\n\nDrop sources only if they map to one resolution criterion.","source_drop_reply":"Source-drop format:\ncriterion_id + durable URL + short note\n\nAccepted: official/source/oracle links.\nRejected: price-only screenshots or profit claims.","thread":["Orrery verification brief\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\n\nState: price pinned not settled\nVerify: Primary source + Contract wording\n\nPrice is not settlement.\nResearch only. Not trade advice.","Open the Orrery market brief:\nhttps://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026\n\nDrop sources only if they map to one resolution criterion.","Source-drop format:\ncriterion_id + durable URL + short note\n\nAccepted: official/source/oracle links.\nRejected: price-only screenshots or profit claims."],"link_placement":"reply_only"},"social_prompts":{"telegram":{"prompt":"Orrery verification task\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\nState: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled\n\nNeed sources for:\n1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.\n2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.\n3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.\n\nDrop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.","mode":"controlled_source_drop"},"x":{"root_post":"Orrery verification brief\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\n\nState: price pinned not settled\nVerify: Primary source + Contract wording\n\nPrice is not settlement.\nResearch only. Not trade advice.","link_reply":"Open the Orrery market brief:\nhttps://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026\n\nDrop sources only if they map to one resolution criterion.","source_drop_reply":"Source-drop format:\ncriterion_id + durable URL + short note\n\nAccepted: official/source/oracle links.\nRejected: price-only screenshots or profit claims.","thread":["Orrery verification brief\n\nWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?\n\nState: price pinned not settled\nVerify: Primary source + Contract wording\n\nPrice is not settlement.\nResearch only. Not trade advice.","Open the Orrery market brief:\nhttps://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026\n\nDrop sources only if they map to one resolution criterion.","Source-drop format:\ncriterion_id + durable URL + short note\n\nAccepted: official/source/oracle links.\nRejected: price-only screenshots or profit claims."],"link_placement":"reply_only"}},"contributor_audit":{"purpose":"Track what actually helped clarify resolution, without rewarding noise, hype, or trading claims.","reputation_basis":["source mapped to correct criterion","primary-source quality","timeliness during resolution-sensitive states","review outcome after settlement"],"required_fields":["contributor_handle","source_url","criterion_id","submitted_at","review_state","reviewer_note"],"rejected_signals":["profit claims","copy-trading instructions","price-only screenshots","unsourced rumors"]},"safety":{"not_trade_advice":true,"forbidden_language":["buy","sell","best bet","copy trade","alpha","guaranteed edge"]},"next_actions":["Open will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026 in Orrery","Verify source and contract wording","Map every source drop to one criterion","Create alert if the market enters a new trust state"]},"next_actions":["GET /api/free/v1/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026/snapshot-lite","GET /api/x402/v1/markets/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026/resolution-risk","GET /api/x402/v1/decision/market/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"]},"upgrade":{"docs":"https://orrery.me/docs/agents","pricing":"https://orrery.me/pricing","paid_api":"https://orrery.me/api/x402/v1/health"}}