# Prediction market alerting: thresholds, resolution risk, whales, and webhooks

Published: 2026-05-17
Updated: 2026-05-17
Canonical: https://orrery.me/blog/prediction-market-alerting
Markdown: https://orrery.me/blog/prediction-market-alerting/markdown

Alerts are where research terminals become retention products. The hard part is firing the right alert with the right context.

## Direct answer

- Good alerts include market, trigger, evidence, source status, and next action.
- Browser-local alerts are useful, but server delivery is the durable paid layer.
- Webhook alerts need signatures, retries, idempotency, and audit history.
- Cross-venue divergence alerts are one of the strongest Team/API use cases.

## Direct answer

Prediction market alerting means notifying a user or system when a market crosses a probability threshold, moves unusually fast, reaches a resolution-risk state, receives large trades, or diverges from a comparable market on another venue.

## Alert types that matter

The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.

- Probability threshold crossed.
- Momentum or divergence observation fired.
- Resolution status changed or expiry approached.
- Large trade cluster appeared.
- Polymarket and Kalshi probability gap crossed a configured threshold.

## What to verify before trusting the move

Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.

- Is the alert based on fresh data?
- Does the payload include the exact trigger and timestamp?
- Is delivery local-only, email, webhook, or team-routed?
- Does the alert include a retry/audit trail for server delivery?

## How Orrery handles it

Orrery separates local browser alert history from server email/webhook delivery. Pro and Team workflows can use signed webhooks, paired email identity, idempotency headers, and server audit history.

Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.

## FAQ

### What is the most useful prediction-market alert?

The most useful alert depends on the workflow. For researchers, resolution-risk and watchlist delta alerts often matter more than raw price thresholds.

### Why are webhooks paid features?

Durable webhook delivery requires server cron, retries, signatures, idempotency, and audit history. That infrastructure is valuable for teams and agents.

### Should alerts say buy or sell?

No. Alerts should say what changed, why it fired, and what to verify next.

## Related Orrery resources

- [Alerts](https://orrery.me/alerts)
- [Pricing](https://orrery.me/pricing)
- [Cross-venue scanner](https://orrery.me/venues)
- [API usage](https://orrery.me/api-usage)

Orrery is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.