# Why 99¢ is not always resolved in prediction markets

Published: 2026-05-17
Updated: 2026-05-17
Canonical: https://orrery.me/blog/why-99c-is-not-resolved
Markdown: https://orrery.me/blog/why-99c-is-not-resolved/markdown

A rail-pinned price is a market opinion. Official resolution is a source-status fact. Confusing the two creates bad research.

## Direct answer

- A 99¢ or 1¢ price can mean the market is effectively priced in or out, not officially settled.
- Official settlement depends on source status, closed status, UMA status, or explicit outcome.
- Near-rail markets need clear user warnings.
- Resolution-risk tooling should use different words for pinned and resolved states.

## Direct answer

A prediction market at 99¢ is not automatically resolved. It means the market is priced very close to YES, but official resolution requires upstream confirmation: closed status, resolved outcome, UMA settlement, or the specified source rule. Until then, the safe label is priced-in or rail-pinned, not resolved.

## The pinned-price verification loop

The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.

- Check whether the upstream market is closed.
- Check whether UMA or the venue has posted a settled outcome.
- Read the exact resolution source and event date.
- Separate near-rail price from official settlement in the UI.
- Keep expired-but-unresolved markets in a verification queue.

## What to verify before trusting the move

Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.

- Whether closed=true or resolvedOutcome is present.
- Whether UMA status is proposed, disputed, settled, or absent.
- Whether the event date has passed but official source confirmation is missing.
- Whether related markets have different rules or expiry times.

## How Orrery handles it

Orrery's status engine separates source status from derived Orrery status. A near-zero or near-one market can show a rail-pinned warning while remaining unresolved, which protects users from treating price as settlement.

Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.

## FAQ

### Does 99¢ mean a prediction market is over?

No. It usually means the market strongly prices one outcome, but the market may still need official resolution.

### What should a UI say for a 1¢ market?

It should say priced-out or rail-pinned unless the source explicitly marks it resolved.

### Why does this matter?

Because users can misread priced-in markets as settled and miss disputes, rule differences, or delayed official confirmation.

## Related Orrery resources

- [Resolution risk guide](https://orrery.me/blog/polymarket-resolution-risk)
- [Resolution watch](https://orrery.me/resolution)
- [Market Status Methodology](https://orrery.me/methodology)
- [Daily Brief](https://orrery.me/brief)
- [Signals](https://orrery.me/signals?tab=resolution)

Orrery is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.