# Orrery Daily Brief — 2026-05-02 > The one-page morning radar for prediction markets. 200 active Polymarket markets covered. Generated at Sat, 02 May 2026 21:04:10 GMT. **Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/brief **Date:** 2026-05-02 **Fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:04:10.188Z ## Executive summary - **5** markets moved more than 5pp in the last 24h. - **5** research signals firing (momentum / divergence / flow / news-lag). - **0** distinct smart-money flow events ≥ \$5K aggregated to wallet × market. - **5** markets resolve within 72 hours. - **1** events end in the next 36 hours. - **3** markets show unusual volume / liquidity turnover. ## Biggest probability moves (24h) | Market | Category | Probability | Δ24h | 24h volume | |---|---|---|---|---| | [Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cin-pit-2026-05-02) | Sports | 19¢ | -27.0pp | $347.0K | | [Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cle-oak-2026-05-02) | Sports | 28¢ | -16.0pp | $224.1K | | [Iran closes its airspace by May 8?](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8) | Geopolitics | 13¢ | -10.0pp | $116.6K | | [Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?](https://orrery.me/markets/will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-22-2026) | Geopolitics | 19¢ | -9.0pp | $147.1K | | [US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?](https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026) | Geopolitics | 21¢ | -9.0pp | $79.6K | ## Active research signals Deterministic rule firings with explicit confidence (0..1). Signals describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations. - **momentum** (95%) — [Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?](https://orrery.me/markets/lal-osa-bar-2026-05-02-bar): Probability moved up 43.0pp in 24h with 5.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. - **momentum** (95%) — [Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-ari-chc-2026-05-02): Probability moved down 40.9pp in 24h with 2.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. - **momentum** (95%) — [Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-tor-min-2026-05-02): Probability moved up 45.0pp in 24h with 2.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. - **momentum** (95%) — [Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cin-pit-2026-05-02): Probability moved down 27.0pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. - **momentum** (95%) — [Raptors vs. Cavaliers](https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03): Probability moved down 15.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. ## Resolution watch ### Expiring within 72h - [76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5](https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-total-205pt5) — 50¢ · resolves May 2, 2026 - [Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?](https://orrery.me/markets/2026-cadillac-championship-winner-scottie-scheffler-win) — 7¢ · resolves May 3, 2026 - [Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs](https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-vit-gl1-2026-05-02) — 97¢ · resolves May 3, 2026 - [Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)](https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-vit-gl1-2026-05-02-map-handicap-away-1pt5) — 86¢ · resolves May 3, 2026 - [Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner](https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-vit-gl1-2026-05-02-game2) — 87¢ · resolves May 3, 2026 ### Past expiry, not yet settled (verify source) - [Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5](https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-mil-wsh-2026-05-02-total-7pt5) — 54¢ - [Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02?](https://orrery.me/markets/fl1-ogc-rcl-2026-05-02-rcl) — 7¢ - [Botafogo FR vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5](https://orrery.me/markets/bra-bot-cre-2026-05-02-total-2pt5) — 81¢ - [76ers vs. Celtics](https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02) — 32¢ - [Spread: Celtics (-8.5)](https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-8pt5) — 45¢ ## Events ending in the next 36 hours - [Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs](https://orrery.me/events/cs2-navi-faze-2026-05-02) — Esports · ends in 2h · $2.9M 24h vol ## Cite this brief ``` Orrery Daily Brief — 2026-05-02. Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:04:10.188Z from https://orrery.me/brief. ``` --- *Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Numbers are fetched live; the timestamp on this brief matters. See .*