# Orrery Daily Brief — 2026-05-18

> The one-page morning radar for prediction markets. 100 active Polymarket markets covered. Generated at Mon, 18 May 2026 06:29:15 GMT.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/brief
**Date:** 2026-05-18
**Fetched:** 2026-05-18T06:29:15.258Z

## Executive summary

- **5** markets moved more than 5pp in the last 24h.
- **2** research observations firing (momentum / divergence / flow / news-lag).
- **0** distinct smart-money flow events ≥ \$5K aggregated to wallet × market.
- **5** markets resolve within 72 hours.
- **0** events end in the next 36 hours.
- **3** markets show unusual volume / liquidity turnover.

## Biggest probability moves (24h)

| Market | Category | Probability | Δ24h | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Iran closes its airspace by May 24?](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24) | Geopolitics | 31¢ | +11.0pp | $326.6K |
| [Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-85k-in-may-2026) | Crypto | 14¢ | -4.0pp | $259.0K |
| [Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?](https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-cleveland-cavaliers-win-the-2026-nba-finals) | Sports | 4¢ | +2.0pp | $528.0K |
| [US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?](https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192) | Geopolitics | 8¢ | -2.0pp | $517.1K |
| [Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?](https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31) | Geopolitics | 3¢ | +1.5pp | $202.6K |

## Active research observations

Deterministic rule firings with explicit confidence (0..1). Observations describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations.

- **divergence** (60%) — [Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?](https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.9pp vs. 24h +1.5pp.
- **divergence** (50%) — [Iran closes its airspace by May 24?](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +11.0pp.

## Resolution watch

### Expiring within 72h

- [LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs](https://orrery.me/markets/lol-kt-bro2-2026-05-18) — 75¢ · resolves May 18, 2026
- [Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?](https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-18) — 79¢ · resolves May 18, 2026
- [Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?](https://orrery.me/markets/epl-ars-bur-2026-05-18-ars) — 90¢ · resolves May 18, 2026
- [Spurs vs. Thunder](https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-18) — 33¢ · resolves May 19, 2026
- [Starmer out by May 19, 2026?](https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-may-19-2026) — 11¢ · resolves May 19, 2026

### Past expiry, not yet settled (verify source)

- [Iran closes its airspace by May 18?](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-18) — 3¢
- [Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?](https://orrery.me/markets/fl1-nan-tou-2026-05-17-tou) — 92¢
- [US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?](https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026) — 14¢
- [Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?](https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30) — 12¢

## Cite this brief

```
Orrery Daily Brief — 2026-05-18.
Retrieved 2026-05-18T06:29:15.258Z from https://orrery.me/brief.
```

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