Event

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

10 markets in this event family · $65.5K 24h volume · $345.7K liquidity. Share the URL anywhere — the rich preview card shows the cluster's biggest mover with one glance.

PoliticsJun 30, 2026advancing 1 · declining 3
24h volume

$65.5K

10 markets · liq $347.0K

Avg volatility

0.1pp

Mean |24h move|

Top movers

0

Markets ≥5pp 24h

Large-trade flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

0

Active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

0

Settlement positioning risk

Top mover · 24h

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
+0.4pp 24hVol $37.0K · Liq $202.2K

All markets in this cluster

10

About this event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.