Event

Iran leadership change by...?

14 markets in this event family · $18.4K 24h volume · $709.5K liquidity. Share the URL anywhere — the rich preview card shows the cluster's biggest mover with one glance.

PoliticsDec 31, 2026advancing 1 · declining 8
24h volume

$18.4K

14 markets · liq $706.3K

Avg volatility

0.2pp

Mean |24h move|

Top movers

0

Markets ≥5pp 24h

Large-trade flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

0

Active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

0

Settlement positioning risk

Top mover · 24h

Iran leadership change by November 30?
12¢-1.0pp 24hVol $1.5K · Liq $43.7K

All markets in this cluster

14

About this event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.