# Santos: Valerio Aboian vs Pedro Sakamoto

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 01:20:15 GMT. 24h change +56.0pp, 24h volume $263.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aboian-sakamo-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-aboian-sakamo-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T01:20:15.671Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +27.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +56.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $263.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $263.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $573.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Pedro Sakamoto in the Santos, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 9:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Pedro Sakamoto.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pedro Sakamoto' if Pedro Sakamoto advances against Valerio Aboian.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 76%): Probability moved up 56.0pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 18,872.109 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 16,963.53 shares
- `0x8546…2540` — 11,999.997 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 8,434.976 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 7,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1ef5…dc05` — 29,951.133 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 13,048.567 shares
- `0x3e2f…aaf8` — 11,145.146 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 9,783.219 shares
- `0xa049…b1b1` — 5,306.15 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 68 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T23:34:06.000Z |
| Range | 32¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-aboian-sakamo-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Santos: Valerio Aboian vs Pedro Sakamoto — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T01:20:15.671Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aboian-sakamo-2026-05-05.
```

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