# Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 39% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 11:41:46 GMT. 24h change +12.0pp, 24h volume $291.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-acosta-tien-2026-05-28
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-acosta-tien-2026-05-28
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T11:41:46.664Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **39¢** (39%) |
| Δ 1h | +26.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +12.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $291.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $304.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $70.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Learner Tien in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acosta' if Facundo Acosta advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Facundo Acosta.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 12.0pp in 24h with 4.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 11:38 UTC | `Exalted-Evocation` | SELL | LEARNER TIEN | $1.4K |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb188…8d5b` — 87,099.639 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 36,047.719 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 34,391.055 shares
- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 17,000 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 9,707.021 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 78,590.659 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 43,602.234 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 22,717.817 shares
- `0x4900…4a72` — 15,438.29 shares
- `0x18c4…f6dc` — 14,523.6 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T10:50:03.000Z |
| Range | 16¢ → 44¢ |
| Net change | +4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-acosta-tien-2026-05-28` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien — 39% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T11:41:46.664Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-acosta-tien-2026-05-28.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*