# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Tomas Barrios

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 6% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 13:20:26 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $158.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aguilar-barrios-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-aguilar-barrios-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T13:20:26.872Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **6¢** (6%) |
| Δ 1h | -73.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $158.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $158.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $54.4K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Tomas Barrios in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Tomas Barrios.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3b4c…e850` — 19,285.1 shares
- `0xd703…71bf` — 18,555.3 shares
- `0x9c87…2e1c` — 16,552.985 shares
- `0x14f1…4a46` — 16,300 shares
- `0xb7b3…9573` — 10,049.37 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 53,771.837 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 13,436.859 shares
- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 10,999.51 shares
- `0x56d2…d7a0` — 9,100 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 5,249.928 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 18 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T09:23:06.000Z |
| Range | 61¢ → 82¢ |
| Net change | +17.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-aguilar-barrios-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Tomas Barrios — 6% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T13:20:26.872Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aguilar-barrios-2026-05-05.
```

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