# Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 23% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 18:33:21 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $38.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aguilar-shelton-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-aguilar-shelton-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T18:33:21.639Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **23¢** (23%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $38.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $38.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $60.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Ben Shelton in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Ben Shelton.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc3ac…b964` — 218,778.434 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 58,999.98 shares
- `0x9cb9…32f2` — 19,999.923 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 14,999.994 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 13,964.061 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbee5…a636` — 234,826.61 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 88,349.178 shares
- `0x4900…4a72` — 25,534.046 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 24,211.22 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 12,410 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 80 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T11:17:03.000Z |
| Range | 23¢ → 25¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-aguilar-shelton-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton — 23% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T18:33:21.639Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-aguilar-shelton-2026-05-24.
```

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