# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 22:07:09 GMT. 24h change -24.4pp, 24h volume $857.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-arnaldi-jodar-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-arnaldi-jodar-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T22:07:09.113Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -24.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $857.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $861.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $334.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Rafael Jodar.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 65,564.349 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 62,933.522 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 34,668 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 23,084.653 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 19,475.842 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x02d8…0c91` — 80,878.174 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 63,547.415 shares
- `0xa16a…33a1` — 34,335.88 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 29,316.712 shares
- `0xc30c…6509` — 20,842.76 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 55 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T22:06:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 26¢ |
| Net change | -24.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-arnaldi-jodar-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T22:07:09.113Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-arnaldi-jodar-2026-05-10.
```

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