# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 93% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:21:56 GMT. 24h change +35.0pp, 24h volume $560.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-arnaldi-munar-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-arnaldi-munar-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T16:21:56.185Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **93¢** (93%) |
| Δ 1h | +40.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +35.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $560.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $565.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $129.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Jaume Munar in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Jaume Munar.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if Jaume Munar advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 35.0pp in 24h with 4.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdcbf…d37f` — 34,691.835 shares
- `0x8b52…568e` — 15,436.243 shares
- `0x2a67…d370` — 14,872.541 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 10,780.608 shares
- `0x92b5…fec6` — 10,363.642 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x02d8…0c91` — 35,362.826 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 27,144.497 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 20,368.574 shares
- `0xbcb9…4734` — 17,836.213 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 11,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T18:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T16:20:08.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 91¢ |
| Net change | +34.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-arnaldi-munar-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar — 93% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T16:21:56.185Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-arnaldi-munar-2026-05-06.
```

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