# Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 51% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 10:44:24 GMT. 24h change -5.0pp, 24h volume $1.8M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-assche-kypson-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-assche-kypson-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T10:44:24.305Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **51¢** (51%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.8M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $983.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Patrick Kypson in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Patrick Kypson.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Patrick Kypson' if Patrick Kypson advances against Luca Van Assche.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x65b5…e82f` — 1,583,000 shares
- `0xea32…8870` — 25,999.997 shares
- `0xdd5e…9040` — 9,458 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 7,748.88 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 6,864.024 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 393,915.552 shares
- `0x160d…5295` — 368,642.003 shares
- `0xad89…f6e1` — 259,994.842 shares
- `0x73af…b880` — 212,458.302 shares
- `0x5d76…9168` — 170,551.958 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 75 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T06:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-assche-kypson-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson — 51% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T10:44:24.305Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-assche-kypson-2026-05-24.
```

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