# Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 54% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 20:08:04 GMT. 24h change -21.0pp, 24h volume $514.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-augeral-altmaie-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-augeral-altmaie-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T20:08:04.113Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **54¢** (54%) |
| Δ 1h | -20.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -21.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $514.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $518.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniel Altmaier in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Daniel Altmaier.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 21.0pp in 24h with 10.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2c33…0563` — 191,742.947 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 177,331.982 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 54,929.193 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 26,842.663 shares
- `0x462d…ce9b` — 23,536.074 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ac2…be3d` — 475,471.261 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 32,596.807 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 19,723.245 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 19,568.458 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 17,410.07 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 111 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T18:05:04.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 76¢ |
| Net change | -21.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-augeral-altmaie-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier — 54% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T20:08:04.113Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-augeral-altmaie-2026-05-24.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*