# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:02:35 GMT. 24h change -62.5pp, 24h volume $749.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-augeral-navone-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-augeral-navone-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:02:35.728Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -62.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $749.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $750.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $245.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Mariano Navone in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Mariano Navone.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 51,331.167 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 31,239.744 shares
- `0x9c87…2e1c` — 19,999.886 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 19,113.082 shares
- `0xdcbf…d37f` — 14,999.993 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3b4c…e850` — 45,024.92 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 33,160.341 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 32,626.423 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 27,063.734 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 23,596.078 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 72¢ |
| Net change | -51.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-augeral-navone-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:02:35.728Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-augeral-navone-2026-05-08.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*