# Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 75% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:50:18 GMT. 24h change +20.0pp, 24h volume $117.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-baez-burruch-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-baez-burruch-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:50:18.165Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **75¢** (75%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +20.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $117.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $120.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $86.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Roman Andres Burruchaga.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Roman Andres Burruchaga' if Roman Andres Burruchaga advances against Sebastian Baez.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 61%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.0pp vs. 24h +20.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 11,409.787 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 6,370.079 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 5,547.28 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 4,816.339 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 2,854.207 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x32b4…8b21` — 5,096.224 shares
- `0x05e3…4b87` — 4,347.999 shares
- `0x0cef…fa91` — 2,000 shares
- `0x3e93…eb10` — 1,384.028 shares
- `0x1f35…95da` — 678.966 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 107 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T14:19:04.000Z |
| Range | 54¢ → 74¢ |
| Net change | +4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-baez-burruch-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — 75% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:50:18.165Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-baez-burruch-2026-05-24.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*