# Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 18:53:01 GMT. 24h change -35.4pp, 24h volume $427.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-basavar-michels-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-basavar-michels-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T18:53:01.367Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -18.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -35.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $427.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $421.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $560.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Nishesh Basavareddy and Alex Michelsen in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Nishesh Basavareddy' if Nishesh Basavareddy advances against Alex Michelsen.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Nishesh Basavareddy.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved down 35.4pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5bec…b215` — 51,803.968 shares
- `0xa080…234f` — 49,887.555 shares
- `0x363c…4463` — 21,946.29 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 15,000 shares
- `0x9cb9…32f2` — 5,999.627 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 45,295.61 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 25,088.788 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 24,402.114 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 23,716.43 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 21,217 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 51 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T18:07:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | -35.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-basavar-michels-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T18:53:01.367Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-basavar-michels-2026-05-27.
```

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