# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 13:00:56 GMT. 24h change +61.5pp, 24h volume $377.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-basilas-aguilar-2026-05-07
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-basilas-aguilar-2026-05-07
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T13:00:56.011Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +61.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $377.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $378.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $305.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 29,265.053 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 25,993 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 11,455.725 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 8,687.757 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 7,352.941 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 18,054.501 shares
- `0x27b0…fc67` — 17,721.87 shares
- `0x8f04…7994` — 5,254.508 shares
- `0x77f6…dbd1` — 4,932.757 shares
- `0x363c…4463` — 4,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T23:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T13:00:04.000Z |
| Range | 31¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +67.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-basilas-aguilar-2026-05-07` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T13:00:56.011Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-basilas-aguilar-2026-05-07.
```

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