# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federico Bondioli vs Emilio Nava

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 17:55:01 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $301.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bondiol-nava-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-bondiol-nava-2026-05-04
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T17:55:01.646Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $301.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $301.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $304.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Bondioli and Emilio Nava in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 8:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Federico Bondioli' if Federico Bondioli advances against Emilio Nava.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Federico Bondioli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 24,207.472 shares
- `0x6a88…b859` — 22,022.02 shares
- `0x3555…ba40` — 19,977.92 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 12,226.399 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 9,785.328 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa362…a3e3` — 19,999.861 shares
- `0x27b0…fc67` — 15,099.964 shares
- `0xde9f…b8f7` — 10,624.69 shares
- `0xd9f9…0eaa` — 10,000 shares
- `0x2748…b7a8` — 8,385.993 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 14 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T17:54:06.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +80.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-bondiol-nava-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federico Bondioli vs Emilio Nava — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T17:55:01.646Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bondiol-nava-2026-05-04.
```

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