# Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 17:53:33 GMT. 24h change +63.4pp, 24h volume $308.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-boyer-montes-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-boyer-montes-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T17:53:33.002Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +63.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $308.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $308.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $346.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Inaki Montes in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 7:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Inaki Montes.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Inaki Montes' if Inaki Montes advances against Tristan Boyer.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdbbb…05a8` — 34,136.219 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 15,703.31 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 3,742.424 shares
- `0xb763…4a90` — 2,878.71 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 1,885.16 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xef1b…8697` — 15,334.113 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 12,762.063 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 9,013.847 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 3,057.251 shares
- `0x8165…97b8` — 2,451.85 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T17:53:05.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +34.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-boyer-montes-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T17:53:33.002Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-boyer-montes-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*