# Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:07:25 GMT. 24h change -32.5pp, 24h volume $734.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bublik-struff-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-bublik-struff-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:07:25.434Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | -23.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -32.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $734.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $735.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $92.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Jan-Lennard Struff in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Jan-Lennard Struff.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Alexander Bublik.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 32.5pp in 24h with 8.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 100,000 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 70,139.522 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 41,799.494 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 36,718.015 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 30,415.816 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5966…f804` — 144,518.444 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 81,312.945 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 41,496.78 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 18,126.052 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 17,232.931 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 109 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T16:18:05.000Z |
| Range | 53¢ → 79¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-bublik-struff-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:07:25.434Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-bublik-struff-2026-05-24.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*