# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 49% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 13:00:13 GMT. 24h change -18.5pp, 24h volume $393.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-burruch-bellucc-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-burruch-bellucc-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T13:00:13.927Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **49¢** (49%) |
| Δ 1h | -20.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -18.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $393.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $396.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $96.6K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Mattia Bellucci in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Roman Andres Burruchaga' if Roman Andres Burruchaga advances against Mattia Bellucci.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Roman Andres Burruchaga.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 18.5pp in 24h with 4.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x153a…9d6d` — 21,069.07 shares
- `0x46ee…ae61` — 18,501.913 shares
- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 8,633.09 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 8,115.232 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 5,704.801 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 21,579.919 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 21,000 shares
- `0xddd3…dba6` — 7,195.643 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 6,682.924 shares
- `0x01c7…e995` — 6,099.3 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 68 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T18:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T12:42:03.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 73¢ |
| Net change | +18.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-burruch-bellucc-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci — 49% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T13:00:13.927Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-burruch-bellucc-2026-05-06.
```

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