# Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 54% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 14:24:40 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $384.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-buse-paul-2026-05-23
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-buse-paul-2026-05-23
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T14:24:40.550Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **54¢** (54%) |
| Δ 1h | +13.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $384.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $384.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $35.9K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 30, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Tommy Paul in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 8:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Tommy Paul.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Ignacio Buse.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xde9f…b8f7` — 93,146.984 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 84,225.34 shares
- `0xde19…3c92` — 20,973.028 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 12,945.529 shares
- `0xddfc…bd59` — 12,054.495 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa9c4…7433` — 51,648.44 shares
- `0xef1b…8697` — 41,476.918 shares
- `0x25cb…03a3` — 21,725.693 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 15,426.751 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 9,775.721 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 16 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T13:23:04.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-buse-paul-2026-05-23` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul — 54% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T14:24:40.550Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-buse-paul-2026-05-23.
```

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