# Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 21% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 18:29:12 GMT. 24h change -10.0pp, 24h volume $299.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-buse-rublev-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-buse-rublev-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T18:29:12.159Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **21¢** (21%) |
| Δ 1h | -13.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -10.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $299.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $312.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $71.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Andrey Rublev in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Andrey Rublev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Ignacio Buse.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 10.0pp in 24h with 4.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 106,502.027 shares
- `0x187a…a22b` — 85,045.129 shares
- `0x9cb9…32f2` — 57,000.023 shares
- `0xde19…3c92` — 36,639.767 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 28,943.737 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x46fb…b1d5` — 72,579.879 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 70,000 shares
- `0xa080…234f` — 69,073.421 shares
- `0xdbbb…05a8` — 56,405.657 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 36,246.315 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 83 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T14:47:04.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 37¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-buse-rublev-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev — 21% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T18:29:12.159Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-buse-rublev-2026-05-24.
```

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