# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Martin Damm

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 15:15:44 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $160.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-damm-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-busta-damm-2026-05-04
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T15:15:44.193Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $160.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $160.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $383.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Martin Damm in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Martin Damm.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Pablo Carreno Busta.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5912…6f45` — 11,513 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 1,098.78 shares
- `0x112e…0d1f` — 50.121 shares
- `0x4934…cca1` — 44.654 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 38.08 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9c76…c926` — 10,500.955 shares
- `0x54ba…04e4` — 7,857.01 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 7,550.75 shares
- `0x4699…5051` — 7,500.833 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 7,356.25 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 8 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T11:50:04.000Z |
| Range | 64¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +33.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-busta-damm-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Martin Damm — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T15:15:44.193Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-damm-2026-05-04.
```

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