# Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 10:42:33 GMT. 24h change +4.0pp, 24h volume $715.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-lehecka-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-busta-lehecka-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T10:42:33.209Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | +10.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $715.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $715.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $80.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Jiri Lehecka in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Jiri Lehecka.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Pablo Carreno Busta.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 74%): Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 8.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 10:42 UTC | `Glamorous-Coach` | BUY | JIRI LEHECKA | $1.00 |
| May 25, 10:42 UTC | `Bitter-Camera` | SELL | PABLO CARRENO BUSTA | $6.79 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 224,999.944 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 68,101.662 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 50,469.67 shares
- `0xe72b…b0a0` — 40,000 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 25,805.348 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x65b5…e82f` — 486,687.576 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 18,181.818 shares
- `0xde19…3c92` — 17,500 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 14,000 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 78 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T09:44:03.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | +16.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-busta-lehecka-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T10:42:33.209Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-lehecka-2026-05-24.
```

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