# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Stan Wawrinka

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 51% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 12:18:32 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $155.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-wawrink-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-busta-wawrink-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T12:18:32.900Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **51¢** (51%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $155.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $155.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $101.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Stan Wawrinka in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Stan Wawrinka.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Pablo Carreno Busta.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6ec6…698b` — 5,562.96 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 4,607.843 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 3,514.949 shares
- `0xd179…74ad` — 2,500 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 2,153 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc4c7…68f0` — 9,453.257 shares
- `0xe3e4…8087` — 4,081.63 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 3,440.949 shares
- `0x4379…2e16` — 2,999.84 shares
- `0x2f01…fa78` — 2,174.529 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 21 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T12:18:07.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 69¢ |
| Net change | -13.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-busta-wawrink-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Stan Wawrinka — 51% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T12:18:32.900Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-busta-wawrink-2026-05-05.
```

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