# Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:50:14 GMT. 24h change -26.5pp, 24h volume $268.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-butvila-bublik-2026-05-20
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-butvila-bublik-2026-05-20
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:50:14.335Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -30.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -26.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $268.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $269.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $398.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Edas Butvilas and Alexander Bublik in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Edas Butvilas' if Edas Butvilas advances against Alexander Bublik.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Edas Butvilas.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved down 26.5pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 29,999.95 shares
- `0x76cc…fbbc` — 12,225.38 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 12,189.302 shares
- `0x51e1…5ec9` — 9,599.18 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 8,039.574 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x64c5…d255` — 26,783.5 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 13,358.582 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 10,000.301 shares
- `0x482d…ba5e` — 8,712.498 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 6,082.1 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T20:03:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 33¢ |
| Net change | -27.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-butvila-bublik-2026-05-20` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:50:14.335Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-butvila-bublik-2026-05-20.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*