# Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 18:19:53 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $287.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-berrett-2026-05-14
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-carabel-berrett-2026-05-14
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T18:19:53.344Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $287.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $287.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $216.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Matteo Berrettini in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Matteo Berrettini.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xba8c…e77d` — 15,000 shares
- `0x59ba…f6a2` — 12,790 shares
- `0x6a88…b859` — 10,010.01 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 7,522.324 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 7,270.52 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe4ea…7f3b` — 52,111.063 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 10,071.601 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 6,209.141 shares
- `0x32b4…8b21` — 3,522.091 shares
- `0x5cae…a00a` — 3,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 20 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T00:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T18:19:07.000Z |
| Range | 38¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +58.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-carabel-berrett-2026-05-14` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T18:19:53.344Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-berrett-2026-05-14.
```

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