# Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 27% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 13:42:00 GMT. 24h change +4.0pp, 24h volume $347.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-rublev-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-carabel-rublev-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T13:42:00.848Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **27¢** (27%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $347.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $349.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $101.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Andrey Rublev in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Andrey Rublev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 13:41 UTC | `Zigzag-Dress` | BUY | ANDREY RUBLEV | $15.29 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 17,566.909 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 12,219.082 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 12,167.214 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 11,776.48 shares
- `0xd123…d341` — 11,216.307 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x979f…4032` — 24,267.244 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 20,229.659 shares
- `0x4900…4a72` — 19,795.767 shares
- `0x3a30…34b1` — 10,634.653 shares
- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 7,946.67 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T23:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T13:31:05.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 37¢ |
| Net change | +8.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-carabel-rublev-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev — 27% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T13:42:00.848Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-rublev-2026-05-27.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*