# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Shevchenko

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 14:26:48 GMT. 24h change -64.5pp, 24h volume $502.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-shevche-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-carabel-shevche-2026-05-06
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T14:26:48.203Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -62.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -64.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $502.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $504.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $556.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Alexander Shevchenko in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Alexander Shevchenko.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Shevchenko' if Alexander Shevchenko advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 81%): Probability moved down 64.5pp in 24h with 0.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 14,890.404 shares
- `0x664a…fc5f` — 11,295.664 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 10,542.397 shares
- `0x0979…8d9b` — 10,052.421 shares
- `0x3d97…f263` — 6,999.496 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ad6…4251` — 22,310 shares
- `0xdf0d…9f79` — 20,000 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 15,287.21 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 14,322.193 shares
- `0x80be…4dfe` — 13,223.557 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T14:00:09.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 70¢ |
| Net change | -64.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-carabel-shevche-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Shevchenko — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T14:26:48.203Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-carabel-shevche-2026-05-06.
```

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