# Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 77% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 13:38:59 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $27.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cilic-kouame-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-cilic-kouame-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T13:38:59.734Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **77¢** (77%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $27.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $37.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $71.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Moise Kouame in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Moise Kouame.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Moise Kouame' if Moise Kouame advances against Marin Cilic.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 50%): Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 27,915.915 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 17,762.048 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 13,081.9 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 6,939.087 shares
- `0xeaf3…e802` — 6,199.988 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x44a1…bd21` — 45,000 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 18,480.926 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 16,647 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 11,463.208 shares
- `0x1431…7a12` — 4,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 100 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T07:19:03.000Z |
| Range | 71¢ → 77¢ |
| Net change | +5.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-cilic-kouame-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame — 77% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T13:38:59.734Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cilic-kouame-2026-05-24.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*