# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:04:24 GMT. 24h change -60.5pp, 24h volume $303.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cilic-landalu-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-cilic-landalu-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:04:24.660Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -60.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $303.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $303.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $390.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Martin Landaluce in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Martin Landaluce.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Marin Cilic.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 29,929.322 shares
- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 23,612.044 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 6,327.78 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 4,665.993 shares
- `0x5b63…11a4` — 4,549.14 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 26,817.219 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 20,854.57 shares
- `0x153a…9d6d` — 9,000 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 8,559.122 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 7,277.075 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 31 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T11:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:02:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 68¢ |
| Net change | -59.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-cilic-landalu-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:04:24.660Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cilic-landalu-2026-05-09.
```

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