# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 49% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 12:01:34 GMT. 24h change +26.0pp, 24h volume $584.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cina-blockx-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-cina-blockx-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T12:01:34.917Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **49¢** (49%) |
| Δ 1h | +30.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +26.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $584.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $667.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $110.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Cina and Alexander Blockx in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Federico Cina' if Federico Cina advances against Alexander Blockx.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Blockx' if Alexander Blockx advances against Federico Cina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 26.0pp in 24h with 5.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 69,727.29 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 53,820.972 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 31,485.249 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 29,292.803 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 28,169.687 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ac2…be3d` — 256,012.92 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 29,419.716 shares
- `0x02d8…0c91` — 25,294.765 shares
- `0x20e5…082a` — 22,264.411 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 19,478.718 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 64 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T07:35:03.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | -35.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-cina-blockx-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx — 49% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T12:01:34.917Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cina-blockx-2026-05-06.
```

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