# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 21:03:09 GMT. 24h change -67.5pp, 24h volume $1.2M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cobolli-tirante-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-cobolli-tirante-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T21:03:09.174Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -67.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.2M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $557.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Flavio Cobolli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x32bf…ec60` — 100,502.675 shares
- `0xde87…11a2` — 88,600 shares
- `0x1624…bf63` — 64,999.45 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 54,001.843 shares
- `0xf56b…ac88` — 29,999.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6049…f14f` — 92,240.42 shares
- `0x3555…ba40` — 85,020.12 shares
- `0x33ab…9523` — 82,834.36 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 51,882.739 shares
- `0x5e04…08a2` — 46,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T23:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T20:48:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 70¢ |
| Net change | -40.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-cobolli-tirante-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T21:03:09.174Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cobolli-tirante-2026-05-11.
```

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