# Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 76% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 08:58:21 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $51.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cobolli-wu-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-cobolli-wu-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T08:58:21.014Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **76¢** (76%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $51.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $54.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $53.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Yibing Wu in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Yibing Wu.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Yibing Wu' if Yibing Wu advances against Flavio Cobolli.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 58%): Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 08:53 UTC | `Elegant-Ram` | BUY | YIBING WU | $1.80 |
| May 28, 08:53 UTC | `0x6f2e…7c7b` | BUY | YIBING WU | $6.26 |
| May 28, 08:53 UTC | `Homely-Modernist` | BUY | FLAVIO COBOLLI | $3.5K |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 66,880.72 shares
- `0xb188…8d5b` — 53,850.35 shares
- `0x88d1…18da` — 19,143.52 shares
- `0x3837…c6b0` — 15,148.27 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 12,377.78 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9c76…c926` — 31,362.485 shares
- `0x6bb3…758e` — 19,460.85 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 18,699.609 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 16,480.359 shares
- `0xda39…c640` — 13,500 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T23:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T22:53:03.000Z |
| Range | 59¢ → 77¢ |
| Net change | +17.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-cobolli-wu-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu — 76% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T08:58:21.014Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-cobolli-wu-2026-05-27.
```

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