# Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 46% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 20:34:29 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $250.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-darderi-minaur-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-darderi-minaur-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T20:34:29.662Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **46¢** (46%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $250.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $250.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $54.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Alex de Minaur in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 12:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Alex de Minaur.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xef29…2f1e` — 30,191.007 shares
- `0xffe9…a70e` — 24,627.473 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 22,318.945 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 21,649.898 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 15,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 78,997.36 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 26,308.06 shares
- `0xf2ce…5462` — 23,870 shares
- `0xdd8e…f023` — 17,809.013 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 16,711.319 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 21 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T23:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T18:52:07.000Z |
| Range | 25¢ → 49¢ |
| Net change | -22.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-darderi-minaur-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur — 46% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T20:34:29.662Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-darderi-minaur-2026-05-21.
```

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