# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 15:30:18 GMT. 24h change +81.5pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-darderi-zverev-2026-05-12
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-darderi-zverev-2026-05-12
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T15:30:18.281Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +76.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +81.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $492.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Alexander Zverev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Alexander Zverev.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Luciano Darderi.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 81.5pp in 24h with 2.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 63,500 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 49,942.3 shares
- `0xa9c4…7433` — 46,046.522 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 34,999.965 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 33,705.89 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0979…8d9b` — 48,892.06 shares
- `0x1624…bf63` — 46,105.687 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 44,038.071 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 23,115.787 shares
- `0xbfe6…fcc9` — 21,673.65 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 42 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T15:16:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +77.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-darderi-zverev-2026-05-12` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T15:30:18.281Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-darderi-zverev-2026-05-12.
```

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