# Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 14:47:48 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $354.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-duckwor-damas-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-duckwor-damas-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T14:47:48.419Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $354.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $354.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $101.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between James Duckworth and Miguel Damas in the Geneva Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Miguel Damas.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Miguel Damas' if Miguel Damas advances against James Duckworth.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa16a…33a1` — 28,945.2 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 16,105.547 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 15,000 shares
- `0x6a88…b859` — 10,010.01 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 5,018.646 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 25,245.732 shares
- `0x6832…831f` — 20,408.383 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 6,250 shares
- `0xce9f…26e8` — 5,149.951 shares
- `0xfb85…8464` — 4,020.966 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 16 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T00:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T14:47:10.000Z |
| Range | 33¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +40.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-duckwor-damas-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T14:47:48.419Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-duckwor-damas-2026-05-16.
```

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