# Francavilla: Justin Engel vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:29:16 GMT. 24h change -41.4pp, 24h volume $271.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-engel-izquier-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-engel-izquier-2026-05-04
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:29:16.227Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -41.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $271.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $272.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $552.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Justin Engel and Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Justin Engel' if Justin Engel advances against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo' if Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo advances against Justin Engel.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe30e…6b87` — 95,928.982 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 14,299.999 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 9,386.709 shares
- `0xda3a…381f` — 9,329.304 shares
- `0x2ca1…ddcd` — 5,100 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 47,181.415 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 17,670.125 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 13,383.67 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 8,891 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 7,920.486 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 65 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T20:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 64¢ |
| Net change | -63.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-engel-izquier-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Francavilla: Justin Engel vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:29:16.227Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-engel-izquier-2026-05-04.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*