# Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 16:04:46 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $285.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-faria-nava-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-faria-nava-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T16:04:46.375Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $285.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $285.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $258.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jaime Faria and Emilio Nava in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 7:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Emilio Nava.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Jaime Faria.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7462…3ac3` — 29,940 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 14,607.015 shares
- `0x3f75…0fbf` — 4,170.033 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 3,004.465 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 2,894.378 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb595…5922` — 24,247.92 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 17,675 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 9,102.06 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 7,209.59 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 6,401.662 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T16:04:19.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 80¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-faria-nava-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T16:04:46.375Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-faria-nava-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*