# Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 21:02:25 GMT. 24h change -15.0pp, 24h volume $256.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fearnle-cerund-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fearnle-cerund-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T21:02:25.209Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | -8.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -15.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $256.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $263.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $66.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Jacob Fearnley.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 15.0pp in 24h with 3.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf3c7…c83b` — 47,934.99 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 31,619.68 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 15,000 shares
- `0x99f0…9495` — 7,076.17 shares
- `0x8c81…dcd3` — 7,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf883…cd1f` — 135,213.67 shares
- `0xc3aa…de5b` — 3,750 shares
- `0xb113…8bc6` — 1,664.998 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 1,340.847 shares
- `0xd9e0…05f2` — 639.997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 113 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T21:00:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | -26.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-fearnle-cerund-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T21:02:25.209Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fearnle-cerund-2026-05-24.
```

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