# Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 13:53:48 GMT. 24h change +15.4pp, 24h volume $854.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-dzumhur-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fokina-dzumhur-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T13:53:48.082Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +35.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +15.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $854.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $854.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $568.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Damir Dzumhur in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Damir Dzumhur.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Damir Dzumhur' if Damir Dzumhur advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 89%): Probability moved up 15.4pp in 24h with 1.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x13f0…a50f` — 19,958.52 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 19,705 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 14,921.231 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 10,506.578 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 7,092.97 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3663…8950` — 15,419.367 shares
- `0x9cb9…32f2` — 9,747.039 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 7,446.746 shares
- `0xdb83…1e50` — 7,392.013 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 7,160.716 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 58 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T13:52:03.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +17.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-fokina-dzumhur-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T13:53:48.082Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-dzumhur-2026-05-24.
```

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