# Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:51:10 GMT. 24h change -41.4pp, 24h volume $828.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-minaur-2026-05-20
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fokina-minaur-2026-05-20
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:51:10.623Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -41.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $828.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $832.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $468.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alex de Minaur in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Alex de Minaur.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 37,451.485 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 29,853.609 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 19,971.995 shares
- `0xa66d…6daa` — 19,454.418 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 16,693.841 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5e04…08a2` — 46,000 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 24,973.33 shares
- `0xf2ce…5462` — 23,800 shares
- `0x3555…ba40` — 21,524.79 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 19,999.992 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 53 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T17:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T20:27:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 46¢ |
| Net change | -44.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-fokina-minaur-2026-05-20` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:51:10.623Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-minaur-2026-05-20.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*