# Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 43% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 08:45:03 GMT. 24h change -4.0pp, 24h volume $135.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-tirante-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fokina-tirante-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T08:45:03.051Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **43¢** (43%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $135.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $137.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $61.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 74%): Probability moved down 4.0pp in 24h with 2.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf164…8fa4` — 24,182.88 shares
- `0x1137…e601` — 19,197.791 shares
- `0x01c7…e995` — 8,076.922 shares
- `0xc181…0992` — 5,999.901 shares
- `0x7760…21f0` — 5,742.79 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd104…710b` — 43,424.965 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 31,416.6 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 8,383.366 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 5,209.031 shares
- `0xfeab…9cd0` — 5,188.41 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T20:10:06.000Z |
| Range | 45¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-fokina-tirante-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — 43% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T08:45:03.051Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-fokina-tirante-2026-05-27.
```

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