# Shymkent 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Manoj Dhamne Manas

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:48:38 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $196.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-gadamau-manas-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-gadamau-manas-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:48:38.878Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +7.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $196.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $196.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $422.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Buvaysar Gadamauri and Manoj Dhamne Manas in the Shymkent 2, originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 at 3:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Buvaysar Gadamauri' if Buvaysar Gadamauri advances against Manoj Dhamne Manas.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Manoj Dhamne Manas' if Manoj Dhamne Manas advances against Buvaysar Gadamauri.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x65b9…ff15` — 30,799.986 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 19,320.16 shares
- `0x4ec8…762a` — 4,999.917 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 2,518.48 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 2,188.679 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 25,276.864 shares
- `0xda5f…2e9b` — 5,660.566 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 4,330.892 shares
- `0xf6de…95e8` — 3,930 shares
- `0x4698…d7a5` — 3,792.35 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 17 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:48:06.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +43.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-gadamau-manas-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Shymkent 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Manoj Dhamne Manas — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:48:38.878Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-gadamau-manas-2026-05-03.
```

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