# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 18:29:44 GMT. 24h change +45.0pp, 24h volume $229.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-garin-cerund-2026-05-07
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-garin-cerund-2026-05-07
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T18:29:44.865Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +45.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $229.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $229.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $597.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Cristian Garin and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Cristian Garin.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 14,562.678 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 10,225.36 shares
- `0xf2ce…5462` — 10,000 shares
- `0x664a…fc5f` — 7,922.531 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 6,504.583 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ac2…be3d` — 23,193.141 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 5,650.823 shares
- `0x26e7…cc6c` — 5,564.081 shares
- `0xfc0c…cfc9` — 3,788.437 shares
- `0xa233…dfe8` — 3,100.25 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T23:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T18:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-garin-cerund-2026-05-07` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T18:29:44.865Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-garin-cerund-2026-05-07.
```

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