# Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 9% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 13:40:02 GMT. 24h change -29.5pp, 24h volume $378.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-garin-tien-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-garin-tien-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T13:40:02.777Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **9¢** (9%) |
| Δ 1h | -25.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -29.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $378.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $403.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $68.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Cristian Garin and Learner Tien in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Learner Tien.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Cristian Garin.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 29.5pp in 24h with 5.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa9c4…7433` — 67,203.715 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 23,635.21 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 22,029.54 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 18,447.79 shares
- `0x99f0…9495` — 17,352.921 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1136…0c2e` — 86,908.74 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 61,457.724 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 29,999.949 shares
- `0xf8a7…6fa3` — 26,253.02 shares
- `0x479e…91c3` — 23,153.938 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 100 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T07:18:05.000Z |
| Range | 36¢ → 45¢ |
| Net change | -9.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-garin-tien-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien — 9% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T13:40:02.777Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-garin-tien-2026-05-24.
```

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